Just two months ago when the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to address. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
