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For a brief period, Trump seemed to take a firm approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing threats of "serious repercussions" last August in case Putin continued hindering truce negotiations, the former president ultimately introduced substantial penalties on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly hindered the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in the region.

Yet, through his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, that was drafted by American and Russian officials lacking Ukrainian or European involvement, he has clearly reverted to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's plan would essentially reward the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Although strong statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", much of the initiative in reality undermine that same independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his corporate background, the former president seems to consider the war as a mere territorial dispute, as if ceding Russia a portion of Ukraine's land will satisfy the leader. However, Russia's military campaign is not only about controlling a destroyed region of industrial-devastated land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear desire to destroy it so it no longer acts as an enticing example for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that Putin's growing dictatorship prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although freezing in status the already split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would force Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in over a decade of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defensive positions critically compromised.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the entrenched protective structures that constitute a key barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine leave these defenses, leaving Putin a open path to the capital in case he subsequently choose to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a step that would make future fighting easier for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to cut the size of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 personnel to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's initiative sets no similar constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's campaign to characterize the nation's legitimate leadership as Nazis, the proposal asserts: "All Nazi belief system and activities must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a truce. However, Trump places no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by holding votes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the proposal includes Russia promise not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of peaceful relations towards European nations and Ukraine". However considering that Putin has violated similar accords in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a truce and a restoration of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should anyone have confidence in this commitment this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western protection assurances. Although the initiative warns of a "decisive unified defense action" if Russia renew its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details vary from fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also prevent Nato members from stationing military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the reassurance force, presumptively commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Russia from rebuilding his reduced forces, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Response

Another side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any future "significant, planned, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an act of war endangering the tranquility of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. But unlike a powerful national defense – Ukraine's best deterrent against renewed hostilities – the credibility of the side agreement would rely on the commitment of alliance members, including Trump, to act militarily to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not