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Just two days before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – going beyond who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that because they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously backed Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the election was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I wish he does so then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. So there was a little resistance. However no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I think that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.